In the month after the downing of an Iranian spy plane, ship routine has resumed to some degree through the Strait of Hormuz, despite months of disruption as tensions strained across the Middle East and with Iran. But renewed objections by Iran to alternate shipping routes continue to cause concerns about the stability of one of the busiest shipping chokepounds in the world.
Kpler maritime intelligence data shows that activity across the Strait of Hormuz rose by 105 per cent on June 24, when some 70 vessels crossed the straits in a single day. Of those, 53 were commercial vessels, most of which were considered low risk vessels. The reopening of safer maritime corridors due to the continuing efforts of demining and use of routes facilitated by Oman has been cited as the reason for the increase.
The pick-up above is seen as an indicator of increased confidence among ship operators in the wake of the reported US-Iran memorandum of understanding and apparently end of the US naval blockade in the region which hamper movement.
While the cuts have bounced back, maritime industry experts warn that activities have not fully recovered. There are a number of risks remaining, such as the lack of tracking information, vessel tracking requirements, uncertainties brought by sanctions and questions about the security of the waterway in the future.
Further adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has cautioned commercial vessels from using any route through the Strait of Hormuz until it is cleared through Tehran. The warning follows delicate US-Iran talks on how the countries can share navigation and security in the region.
The Strait of Hormuz is still one of the world’s most important energy supply and demand areas, and any disruption in shipping here can mean economic and geopolitical global events.