Six months after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, the war Donald Trump once described as a “little excursion” has turned into a costly stalemate.
Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted, and there is still no clear endgame. Washington now appears to be shifting back towards economic pressure, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly telling allies that new strikes are unlikely for now.
Six consequences already stand out.
The war is becoming a political liability for Trump
Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the war began, according to reports, as higher gas prices have undercut his promise to tackle the cost of living.
Only 31% of Americans approve of the conflict, a weaker level of support than the Afghanistan war received at a similar stage.
That could become a problem for Republicans as they defend narrow majorities in the November midterm elections.
Iran’s missile arsenal has been damaged — but not destroyed
The U.S. has damaged a significant portion of Iran’s missile capabilities, but the arsenal has not been eliminated.
As reported in March that the U.S. could confirm the destruction of only about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal. The fate of another third remained unclear, although those missiles were believed to have been damaged or buried in bunkers.
That means Iran still retains a significant ability to launch strikes.
Economic pain is deepening — while the crackdown at home hardens
Thousands have died, while Iran’s already struggling economy has come under even greater pressure.
Food inflation reached 128% year-on-year in July, according to Iran’s Statistical Center, adding to the pressure on ordinary households.
At the same time, the crisis appears to have temporarily pushed internal divisions into the background and given the government greater justification to tighten its grip on dissent.
The Middle East remains destabilised, leaving U.S. allies exposed
The campaign was intended to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten the region.
Instead, analysts say the conflict has produced a more complicated outcome. Tehran has been weakened in some areas but remains capable of exerting influence, while the wider conflict has destabilised the region and left some U.S. partners more exposed to retaliation.
The result is a Middle East that remains volatile, with no clear indication that the strikes have produced lasting regional stability.
Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back — but the long-term picture is murky
The strikes damaged three known Iranian enrichment sites, while Israeli attacks also killed senior nuclear scientists.
U.S. intelligence estimated in May that Iran’s “breakout time” — the time it would theoretically need to produce enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon — had stretched to about a year, compared with roughly six months before the war.
But much of Iran’s nuclear status remains difficult to verify.
UN inspectors have not returned to Iran’s nuclear sites, while the International Atomic Energy Agency cannot account for roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% since the 2025 strikes.
Iran continues to deny that it is seeking a nuclear weapon.
The shipping and energy shock has spread — but the global economy has absorbed it
Iranian attacks on shipping, combined with a Houthi blockade affecting Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea, have pushed up insurance and transportation costs.
The disruption has placed additional pressure on Gulf supply chains and raised concerns about energy supplies.
Yet the global economy has so far proved more resilient than during previous oil shocks.
Economies are generally less energy-intensive than they were decades ago, while strong consumer and business spending — including the current boom in artificial intelligence investment — has helped cushion some of the impact.
The U.S. military has paid a price too.
The economic and political costs are not the only consequences.
A May Congressional Research Service report counted 42 U.S. aircraft lost to Iranian fire and accidents. Reports have also indicated that the U.S. has used up nearly its entire global stock of certain precision-guided munitions.
Six months into the war, the costs for the U.S., Iran and the global economy are no longer merely hypothetical.