New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) revises its prediction for the coming June-September monsoon season on Friday, predicting average rainfall in the entire nation to fall below normal levels at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
This comes down from an already conservative prediction from early April, when the organization predicted rainfall levels at 92% of LPA. From data gathered between 1971 to 2020, the normal LPA for monsoon rains in the country was found to be at 87 cm. The revised model is noted to have a margin of error of ±4%.
This development is worrying as far as agriculture is concerned since monsoon rainfall is critical for crops’ growth. As per the prediction matrix prepared by the IMD, there is a very high chance of experiencing “deficient” monsoons of less than 90% of the LPA. This probability comes in at 60%, while that of a “below normal” monsoon ranges between 90% and 95%, coming up to 24%. On the other hand, the possibility of the monsoon reaching “normal” rainfall levels of 96-104% of LPA has been pegged at 14%. A zero percent probability has been placed on the occurrence of “excess” monsoon, and a mere 2% for “above normal.”
In response to the alarming statistics, Mr. Ravichandran, who was the Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that the data should be understood in a wider context.
“Forecast probability is not the only indicator,” said Mr. Ravichandran. “The 90% of LPA forecast was given by us considering the total amount of precipitation we expect to receive during this year. Therefore, dynamic considerations also come into play.”
Although the deterministic prediction suggests that the probability lies just within the margin of a deficient monsoon, dynamic atmospheric models will continue to be studied in detail as the monsoon progresses through the sub-continent.
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