As the United States heads toward next month’s midterm elections, U.S. President Donald Trump has increasingly turned to the attacks on certain Russian oil refineries in Ukraine as a justification for his statements that the country’s oil prices have been rising. But energy analysts report the war between the United States and Iran is still the big factor in raising prices.
In the last 18 months, Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on energy infrastructure, targeting energy oil lines to cut Russia’s oil profits and its capacity to fund the conflict. “They have been launching attacks mainly against oil refineries”, said Energy Intelligence’s economist Julien Mathonniere, who was talking to reporters.
According to the IEA the first eight months of 2026 averaged one attack per Russian refinery, underscoring Ukraine’s unparalleled attacks on the Russian energy sector.
Russian Fuel Exports Face Disruption
The attacks have impacted Russia’s fuel production and exportability. Russia’s net export volumes of diesel decreased by around 80 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, from some 1.05 million bpd to some 200,000 bpd, said Rystad Energy’s Viktor Kurilov.
In response to domestic fuel supply disruptions, the Russian capital, Moscou, banned exports of diesel fuel from July to end of October.
In recent years, Trump has been critical of the Ukrainian strikes launched on Russian refinery facilities, alleging that the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky “disregarded” his orders to suspend the strikes.
In the meantime, however, Trump did not previously pay much attention to the escalation of the Russian aggression on the Ukrainian territory in recent months that reportedly resulted in growing loss of lives among civilians.
Higher gas prices are a political issue in the U.S. ahead of the upcoming midterm elections and the conflict follows a similar pattern here.