The domestic market has seen price increases for rice due to India’s prioritisation of rice production over the past few months, with concerns that poor rains and the willingness of farmers to apply less fertiliser will impact paddy output in the 2026-27 crop year.
The increasing El Niño phenomenon has been contributing to concerns on production. El Niño, which causes a temporary ocean warming up, can affect rainfall and temperatures, and has been a concern regarding crop yields.
Subsequently, in the financial year last year, paddy prices reported in Kota (Rajasthan) are at ₹ 3,200–3,400 per quintal, whereas in the current financial year, the price is gone up to ₹ 4,500–4,700.
Less carry-over stock has been a contributing factor to the surge in prices of rice, while also propped up by the belief that current crop expectations have fallen, says mandi trader Aniket Mehta. Because of poor precipitation, farmers have less water for irrigation, and less fertiliser application, he said.
Farmers cannot afford enough fertilisers and their cost has increased due to the Iran war, according to traders.
The overall extent of paddy loses remain unclear, but market experts and traders believe losses to be more compared to last season.
The government has yet to come out with the first estimated figures of kharif crops production for the 2026-27 season. Generally, these estimates are published in November after the sowing is completed.
As harvest continues, the market participants are in close watch on production figures, weather and government estimates that may give better insights into the rice availability situation in the next few months.