Power shortages have worsened further in India exceeding even the deficit measured during the summer heat waves, and in September could hit as high as 7.7 gigawatts (GW) during the night. The rise is in addition to hydropower production that is curbed due to shortages in the monsoon rains, forcing coal power plants to handle higher demand.
The drop in hydropower generation for the first three weeks of September was 12% compared with the same period last year, with this month likely to mark the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. This month the country has also seen its coal fired electricity generation go up by 18% and so far in the financial year, it has gone up by 11%, in response to rising electricity demand from industries, households and cooling requirements.
A lack of monsoon rainfall has been suggested as being responsible for the pressure on the electricity system in India. El Niño conditions going to the onset of the 2016 rainfall season were accompanied by rainfall that was approximately 15% below normal for the season (June – September). In 2026, if the deficit continues till end of season, India might experience the least monsoon of the season since 2009.
A significant proportion of India’s hydropower is to be replaced by electricity generated from non-fossil fuels and the demand for it has risen in recent times. Hydropower makes up approximately 9% of the country’s total generation capacity, but growth in hydro and nuclear capacity has been slow and energy-storage capacity is lacking, thus increasing reliance on coal.
In the meantime, coal stocks in power-fired delivery facilities have also dropped significantly. By September 21 around 40% of the 196 plants surveyed by the government had critical stocks, with less than a quarter of the average stocks. According to the data of the Separate Central Electricity Authority, 74 out of 190 thermal power plants had critically low stocks as of September 19.
The situation reflects the rising challenges faced by the power system of India, owing to inability of rain and increased power demand, resulting in less hydropower generation.