New Delhi: Amid certain escalation of the Ukraine conflict and the Israeli military’s ongoing attack on Hamas in Gaza, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia on July 8–9 for a bilateral meeting with President Vladimir Putin is crucial to India’s strategic planning.
Additionally, in January 2025, Pakistan, under the control of Munir Akram, an ardent opponent of India, will become a temporary member of the UN Security Council for a two-year term. China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend, will be watching this development for an opportunity to either push a resolution regarding Jammu and Kashmir or identify innocent Indians as worldwide terrorists, as it did in the past. Not only that, but India will not be at the Geneva Human Rights Council next year. The Council last issued a report on purported human rights abuses in Jammu and Kashmir in 2018, when India was not a member.
Clearly, India will need to take the initiative in global forums since Pakistan’s Akram will work with the Chinese to corner India at the UN. Given the current international situation, Prime Minister Modi made the decision to visit Russia (he had not done so before 2019) in order to have private talks with President Putin. This was because it was clear during the G-7 meeting in Italy that the West would increase its involvement in Ukraine by using weapons and even sending in troops. On his part, President Putin has stated unequivocally that in the event that events in Crimea or the Russian hinterland worsen, he will arm opponents of the West and does not rule out the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
It has been reported that there will be less focus on bilateral results and more on exchanging worldviews at the July meeting between President Putin and Prime Minister Modi. Since there is good potential that Labor will win the UK election and Emmanuel Macron of France will almost certainly lose his majority due to the right wing’s electoral victories, India will actually need to be quick on the international diplomacy side. Apart from this, the US is about to undertake presidential elections, with Donald Trump and Joe Biden engaging in a brutal duel before the November election.
The West’s pressure on Russia to enter Ukraine has complicated things for India, as Putin feels compelled to pursue détente with Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite Beijing’s pressure on Russia’s eastern borders. Although the West may bemoan India for being open to Russia, given that the majority of India’s military supplies still come from Moscow, Bharat cannot afford for Russia to align itself with China.
Status quo or fence sitting is no longer an option; thus, Indian diplomacy must be astute and aggressive, even as the Chinese Navy uses the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as leverage with Bangladesh, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan to expand its footprint in the Indian Ocean Region.
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