The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon withdrawal will probably be experienced in the next two days. This reversal of the seasons is being caused by the setting up of the easterly and northeast wind patterns on the southern peninsular area and adjacent sections of the central and southern Bay of Bengal. As a result of these developments, it is believed that very soon the northeast monsoon will begin over the southeast peninsular India.
Though the south-west monsoon officially ends on 30th September, its effects are seen to continue in different parts of the country. The monsoon activity was experienced in early and mid-October this year, and eastern India received above normal rainfall in several areas.
There are several weather systems affecting the subcontinent. There is an upper air cyclonic circulation existing in the lower troposphere of South Bangladesh and the neighbouring region. The other cyclonic circulation is found over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere.
Moreover, there exists a circulation over the west-central Arabian Sea and another circulation over the southwest Bay of Bengal and the adjacent Indian Equatorial Ocean, reported IMD. The movement of this system is expected to be west-northwest to the Comorin region. In its presence, a low-pressure region will emerge over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjacent Lakshadweep region around the 19th of October.
The IMD has cautioned of the increase in rainfall activity in Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the coming week. These locations will experience isolated heavy rain as the northeast monsoon comes in.
It is predicted to have light to moderate rain and thunderstorms at isolated points with isolated heavy showers in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Mahe up to October 20. Similar conditions are expected to occur in South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema until October 16. On October 16-18, Lakshadweep will receive some showers.
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