TEHRAN: President Donald Trump’s assertion that US forces “totally obliterated” three key Iranian nuclear installations late Saturday has been met with skepticism and growing concern from independent analysts, who suggest the strikes may have inadvertently complicated the critical task of monitoring Iran’s atomic program. While the military action aimed to cripple the Islamic Republic’s known nuclear capabilities, it has instead created a monumental new challenge in discerning what remains and where.
The targeted sites, reportedly including Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, were struck in a major operation that President Trump hailed as a “spectacular military success.” However, satellite imagery and initial assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) paint a more nuanced picture. While there is undeniable damage to surface structures and impact craters visible at various locations, the extent of destruction to deep underground facilities, particularly Fordo, remains unclear due to their fortified nature and the penetrating munitions used.
Crucially, the IAEA, whose monitors were actively inspecting Iranian sites daily until Israel’s bombing campaign began on June 13, is now facing significant hurdles. Prior to the recent escalation, IAEA inspectors had already lost track of the precise location of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, a quantity potentially sufficient for multiple nuclear weapons if further processed. The latest strikes have only exacerbated this challenge.
Experts following Iran’s nuclear program warn that rather than yielding a quick win, the strikes have made the task of tracking uranium and ensuring Iran doesn’t build a weapon significantly more complex. “It will now be very difficult for the IAEA to establish a material balance for the nearly 9,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, especially the nearly 410 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium,” stated Tariq Rauf, former head of the IAEA’s nuclear-verification policy.
Furthermore, analysts suggest that while military action may damage declared facilities, it also provides a powerful incentive for Iran to accelerate efforts to move its nuclear program further underground and into clandestine locations, effectively creating new and harder-to-track sites. The long-term consequences of these strikes could be a more opaque and less verifiable Iranian nuclear program, hindering international efforts to prevent proliferation. The world now grapples with the fallout, as concerns mount over the true impact on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the potential for a dangerous, untraceable future for its atomic activities.
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