The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts India to get above average monsoon rainfall in the year 2025. Released on Tuesday, the forecast has set hope for a strong agricultural output and growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy. M. Secretary to the Ministry of Earth Sciences Ravichandran said at a press briefing that the monsoon of crucial June to September should witness a rainfall of 105 percent of the long-term average.
The IMD has defined “normal” monsoon rainfall as anything between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm. According to the prediction, the rainfall will be 105 per cent on a 5 per cent margin of error; this is within the normal range, meaning a season with above-average rainfall.
India’s agriculture sector relies heavily on the southwest monsoon, which usually starts around the dates of First week of June and goes by mid-September. The river provides about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical in the recharge of groundwater as well as the filling of reservoirs and the sustenance of kharif (summer sown) and rabi (winter-sown) cropping cycles. The adequate and timely monsoon rains ensure food security, increase rural incomes and help reduce import of essential commodities.
It is a welcome relief to farmers facing scorching heat during a tough year marked by more and more heatwave days. An above normal number of heatwave days during the April-June period is already forecast by the IMD.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture previously projected a record wheat harvest in India in 2025, with improved soil moisture after last year’s rainfall. It also predicted a near-record rice harvest, as long as monsoon conditions are favourable, for the 2025–26 marketing year.
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