The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon will likely commence in the southern state of Kerala and some of the northeast states within the next 24 hours to help beat heat waves emerging in the northwest and central India regions. The above weather forecasts indicate that there is a slow escalation in these regions over 3-4 days, and a decline in the maximum temperatures by about 3-4° C is anticipated.
The IMD reports said that it is expected that the remaining part of the south-west monsoon will progress into some more places in the South Arabian Sea, the remaining part of the Maldives and the Comorin area, some of the places in Lakshadweep, the Southwest and the Central Bay of Bengal and the Northeast Bay of Bengal in the same week.
At one time, the monsoon arrived late by a week, only on June 8. The monsoons begin in the southern part of India, in the state of Kerala, around June 1, and by moving northward, the entire country receives monsoons by July 15. In northeast India, the monsoon begins from June 5 normally but during a year with a healthy BoB arm, it overlaps. The northeastern states have witnessed heavy rainfall in the recent past; the cyclone behaviour originates from the active arm of the Bay of Bengal due to severe cyclone Remal.
The monsoon onset over Kerala is declared for the second consecutive day from May 10, provided 60% of all 14 specified stations record at least 2 mm of rainfall. 5mm or more, south-westerly, and low outgoing long-wave Radiation (OLR), suggesting lower cloud cover.
It is, therefore, apparent that IMD’s operational prediction of monsoon onset over Kerala has been a robust forecast system over the last 19 years, with certain anomalies observed in 2015. The outlook for this year indicated that herein is likely to occur around the 31st of May, with the model error estimation at +/-4 days.
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