India probably has between 190 and 250 warheads in its arsenal and is working hard to modernize its arsenal that can carry nuclear weapons, according to a new analysis by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS).
India is pursuing a more complex nuclear arsenal comprising air force, land forces and submarines, the assessment said, drafted by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle. The researchers estimate that the operational forces of India can deliver over 160 warheads; and further warheads are going into service for missiles entering service.
India Making its Nuclear Platform Larger
Currently India has nine nuclear capable systems in operation – two aircraft, six land-based ballistic missiles and one sea-based ballistic missile, India estimates, the report says. There are at least two more in development.
The scientists also emphasize that India hasn’t made the Indian nuclear stockpile size and exact deployment status and the capabilities of its strategic arsenal public. Therefore, the estimates are independent and based on information made public including satellite images and others, not on official disclosures made by India.
It reports that Indian has always had a policy of “no first use” for nuclear weapons and has been working towards military modernization and expanding its delivery options.
Mirage 2000 And Jaguar Remain Important
Aircraft continue to form an important part of India’s nuclear posture. The assessment concludes that the country’s likely main nuclear strike aircraft is the Mirage 2000H and that, at least some squadrons were put on to be nuclear strike squadrons.
The Jaguar IS/IB also has been classified as a secondary nuclear. But, the Indian Air Force is set to phase out older Jaguars, and the report said that the process of the aircraft was to begin in the late 2020s and move towards the early 2030s.
Rafale, which was built in France, may be given part of the air-based nuclear mission one day to assume by the Jaguar. The report mentions Rafale has already been used in France for their nuclear mission, but it does not state as of yet whether or not India’s military jets are destined for an operational nuclear role.
Missiles And Nuclear Triad Continue To Develop
The Prithvi-II and ‘Agni’ series ballistic missiles are components of the indigenously developed land based nuclear arsenal of India. The significance of the Agni-V, which has been fired off with various multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technologies is mentioned in the report.
India’s nuclear force is also g increasingly indigenizing sea based. The country has been advancing its battalion of ballistic-missile submarines in the development of its budding nuclear triad, the report said. It projects that India is expected to commission its third home-made nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine, INS ‘Aridhaman’, in April 2026.