India Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicted that conditions were ‘becoming favourable’ for the onset of the southwest monsoon (AMS) to happen in the south Bay of Bengal by the end of this week, followed by the Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar islands.
The IMD has said that the low-pressure system in the southeast Bay of Bengal, which has already intensified, would further strengthen over the next two days. The convective current around the cyclone reaches as high as 4.5 km above mean sea level and is playing a positive role in monsoon progressing in the region.
But meteorologists said they are not yet ready to give a forecast regarding the onset of monsoon in Kerala. The IMD is expected to release the forecast for the onset of Kerala soon, spokesperson M Mohapatra said. Normally, the monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on June 1st.
The Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India’s agriculture, water supply and economy in that it contributes almost 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The monsoon is under close watch this year because of the possibility of the development of El Niño conditions during May/June/July.
El Niño season is also known for drier than usual monsoons and hotter summers in India. In the earlier contagency, IMD had forecast that the incoming rainfall for the season would be below normal by 92% of the LPA, thus, worrying about water availability and the production of the crops in various areas.