According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), India is on the path to experiencing a difficult weather year in 2026, based on the global weather indicators showing the potential recovery of the El Nino. There are early projections that the increasing temperature of the sea surface of the Pacific Ocean may cause El Niño conditions during the months of May to July, with the likelihood that it may intensify later in the year.
El Niino is a natural climatic process whereby the central and eastern Pacific ocean is abnormally warm. Although the rise in temperature might seem inconsequential, it has a major impact on global circulation of the wind and rainfall distribution. In the case of India, this can often be translated into lesser monsoon activity, diminished rainfall, and elevated temperatures than usual.
The phenomenon belongs to the larger El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that switches between three states the El Niño (warm state), the La Niña (cool state) and the neutral conditions. Currently, the world is at a neutral position but all climate models are predicting a transition to El Niino in the next few months.
Such transition, WMO has warned, may have far reaching consequences especially in the agricultural sector, water supply and power demand in India. A weaker monsoon may affect crop output and pressurise water resources, and long-term heatwaves may pose health and energy risks.
With a predicted strong El Nino this year, there is a likelihood of excessive heat and unpredictable rainfall patterns and therefore authorities need to be ready to deal with any climate-related upheavals in all sectors.